# 4. Prediction Markets \[V2 launch]

Prediction markets allow users to speculate on binary outcomes using financial primitives. They enable real-time crowd consensus and efficient price discovery across a range of topics—from macroeconomic events to politics to meme culture.

Markets are structured as YES/NO outcomes. Users purchase shares in the outcome they believe is most likely. Prices range from 0 to 1, and shift dynamically based on open interest and liquidity.

### 4.2 Market Examples

* “Will BTC close above $150K by the end of the month?”
* “Will the Fed raise rates at the next meeting?”
* “Will Donald Trump be impeached?”
* “Will Etherum outperform Bitcoin this quarter?”

Users can trade in and out of positions before resolution, or hold through to market close for a full payout.

### 4.3 Market Mechanics

Each market operates under a consistent logic:

* Prices reflect implied probability
* Liquidity moves prices based on order flow
* Oracles resolve outcomes with finality

All market creation, trading, resolution, and payout occurs on-chain. The system is deterministic, permissionless, and auditable.

### 4.4 Future Evolution

Initial markets will be curated by the MAI team. But over time, we intend to open market creation to users via a proposal and bonding system. This will allow community members to launch markets, back them with liquidity, and share in the resulting fees.


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