4. Prediction Markets

Prediction markets allow users to speculate on binary outcomes using financial primitives. They enable real-time crowd consensus and efficient price discovery across a range of topics—from macroeconomic events to politics to meme culture.

Markets are structured as YES/NO outcomes. Users purchase shares in the outcome they believe is most likely. Prices range from 0 to 1, and shift dynamically based on open interest and liquidity.

4.2 Market Examples

• “Will BTC close above $150K by the end of the month?”

• “Will the Fed raise rates at the next meeting?”

• “Will Donald Trump be impeached?”

• “Will Etherum outperform Bitcoin this quarter?”

Users can trade in and out of positions before resolution, or hold through to market close for a full payout.

4.3 Market Mechanics

Each market operates under a consistent logic:

• Prices reflect implied probability

• Liquidity moves prices based on order flow

• Oracles resolve outcomes with finality

All market creation, trading, resolution, and payout occurs on-chain. The system is deterministic, permissionless, and auditable.

4.4 Future Evolution

Initial markets will be curated by the MAI team. But over time, we intend to open market creation to users via a proposal and bonding system. This will allow community members to launch markets, back them with liquidity, and share in the resulting fees.